Skip to content

Climate ‘feedback loops’ could worsen global warming by 30%

scienceSep 10, 202640809

A study led by Sam Abernethy and published in Environmental Research Letters found methane and carbon dioxide released from warming landscapes could amplify human-caused global heating by 20% to 30% by 2100, adding roughly 0.2C to 0.4C to the global average temperature. The paper estimates emissions from thawing permafrost, warming wetlands and freshwaters, and fiercer wildfires will drive that extra warming, and says those feedbacks are largely missing from current climate projections. Abernethy called the effect a "hidden multiplier" that is absent from the models guiding climate policy, and co-author Rob Jackson said the results are a "wake-up call" that must be included in next-generation policies. The United Nations last week conceded the international target to limit warming to 1.5C will be breached in the next few years, a context the paper says increases the urgency of accounting for feedback emissions. The authors warn models omitting these sources are likely underestimating future warming and overestimating how much carbon can still be emitted, making meeting global climate goals less likely.

1 source