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National Academies back extreme‑event attribution science

scienceJul 16, 202619585

The U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine issued a report backing the field of extreme-event attribution, concluding that "decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, record-breaking heat waves, and extreme rainfall." The panel said attribution methods have advanced to a point where scientists can link specific heatwaves, wildfires, and heavy rainfall to climate change with growing confidence, and that the science is improving for both retrospective explanations and forward-looking risk assessment. The report highlighted that stronger attribution could support legal actions seeking damages and shape public policy on preparedness and liability, a point underscored by reporting in The New York Times. The fossil fuel industry has attacked the report, and a House bill seeking to shield companies from liability labels extreme-event attribution as lacking credibility and now has about 20 co-sponsors, including four added this week. The academies’ assessment is likely to increase use of attribution evidence in lawsuits and legislative debates over industry responsibility and climate adaptation funding.

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