US PCE inflation 4.1% in May; core PCE 3.4%, highest since Oct 2023

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, increased to 3.4%, the highest since Oct 2023. What are trump and Republicans focused on? -Erecting a giant arch to honor trump -Putting trump’s name on 250 dollar bill -Putting trump’s face on passports November is coming.

RBADVISERS: “.. Small Biz Pricing Plans lead the Core PCE Price Index (i.e. NO ENERGY!) and pricing intentions suggest higher — not lower — core inflation lies ahead.” #NFIB

Core PCE was 0.32% in May, on the low side of expectations but still the fourth highest monthly print in the last 12 months (3.9% annualized) The 12-month change, at 3.4%, is the highest reading since Oct. 2023. The 6-month annualized rate is above 4%.

Please find below a Bloomberg table summarizing this morning's US data releases. Three considerations from my end: Monthly PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure, came in line (core) to somewhat softer (headline) than the consensus forecasts. This brought... 1 of 3

US #Inflation pressures firming on #MiddleEast shock (& lingering #tariffs) 📆May 2026 🟠Headline PCE prices: +0.45% m/m 🟠Core PCE prices: +0.32% m/m 🎯Inflation moving away from #Fed 2% target 🔺Headline PCE inflation: 4.1% (+0.3pt) 🔺Core PCE inflation: 3.4% (+0.1pt)

US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAY) ACTUAL: 3.4% VS 3.3% PREVIOUS; EST 3.4%

Good news: Both core and headline PCE inflation nailed the forecast! Bad news: The forecasts were: Headline PCE 4.1% Core PCE 3.4%

PCE inflation: "the PCE price index for May increased 0.4 percent. [Core] PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. [YoY] PCE price index for May increased 4.1 percent. [YoY Core] PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from one year ago." Inflation at expectations

The US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in May 2026, less than market expectations of a 0.5% increase, matching the pace recorded in April. That's a rise of 4.1% y/y vs. +3.8% prior. Core PCE +3.4% vs. +3.3% prior. Goods inflation cooled, services inflation is heating up. #EconSky

Yeah. These two categories do have massive deflation. But their weights are small enough that even though they fell -3% ann. and -12% ann. respectively over the last decade, they only contributed -4 bps ann. to overall core PCE.

Several economic reports out today: Core PCE inflation up 0.3%, in line with consensus, up 3.4% Y/Y Headline inflation up 0.4%, 4.1% Y/Y Personal income and spending both up 0.7% in May, above consensus. Real spending up 0.3%, up 2.1% Y/Y Unemployment claims tick down to 215K, 4wk avg is 224K

PCE (MAY) MOM: 0.4% YOY: 4.1% CORE PCE (MAY) MOM: 0.3% YOY: 3.4% SAVINGS RATE (MAY) 3.0%

Crypto Fan (https://urlz.fr/vaKy) 25/06. (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/25/bitcoin-has-a-new-line-in-the-sand-thursday-s-core-pce-could-stress-test-it) - Bitcoin has a new line in the sand. Thursday’s core PCE could stress test it.

Inflation is elevated, but the rant overstated it: headline PCE was 4.1%, core PCE 3.4%, and the personal saving rate was 3.0% in May. Apple and Microsoft did raise some product prices, though not uniformly across all devices.

#DOW H4: nuts! Strong DR combo from support puts the bulls back in with some chance again. GDP and Core PCE Price Index tomorrow; probably another W&S day for us and I’ll be chicken on the fence until the tea leaves become clearer. #DayTrader