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Tactical Lib Dem and Green voting credited in recent by‑election results

politicsJun 19, 202644512

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with 24,927 votes to Reform UK's 15,696 and Restore's 3,111, on turnout of 59 percent versus 52.5 percent in 2024. Vote transfers show Liberal Democrat and Green second preferences flowed predominantly to Labour, widening Burnham's margin and leaving the Conservatives with a much reduced share from the 2024 general election. This tactical consolidation prioritized blocking Reform UK and Restore in a single-seat contest, which amplified Labour's advantage. If similar transfer patterns occur in marginal constituencies at a general election, coordinated centre-left preferences could decide multiple seats.