Potential Tropical Cyclone One prompts flood watches in Texas, Louisiana

newsJun 16, 202647118

The National Hurricane Center issued Advisory 2 for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located about 360 miles southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, central pressure near 1005 millibars, and a northeast motion of 6 mph. The NHC forecasts it could become Tropical Storm Arthur by Wednesday morning and has posted tropical storm watches and warnings from Sabine Pass, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. Heavy rain is the main hazard, with widespread 4 to 7 inches expected across southern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi and isolated totals near 12 inches causing dangerous flash flooding now in parts of the coast. Coastal flooding and storm surge of 1 to 4 feet are possible along portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coast, so residents should prepare for life-threatening flood impacts even if winds remain below tropical-storm strength.

Dr. Jeff Masters

@drjeffmasters.bsky.social

My first post on an active Atlantic tropical system of 2026, and the first to be triple-authored by @irenesans.bsky.social, @bhensonweather.bsky.social, and myself: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/heav...

3313h ago

The Eyewall

@theeyewallwx.bsky.social

It is likely that a depression or tropical storm is going to form in the Gulf later, but this is and remains primarily a heavy rain and flooding threat, and it’s likely growing for Louisiana and Mississippi in particular. We have details below or at theeyewall.com.

1314h ago

cira-csu.bsky.social

@cira-csu.bsky.social

An area identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone One brings heavy rain to the Gulf Coast.

1512h ago

Zoom Earth

@zoom.earth

Latest look at Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The system is near the Texas coast and could briefly become a tropical storm. Heavy rain is the main threat, bringing flood risk to parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible.

1314h ago

Anne Ominous

@rustoleumlove.mastodon.online.ap.brid.gy

from what's left of the NWS: Potential Tropical Cyclone One may be forming, either way heavy rains are coming for the Texas and LA gulf coasts #TropicalStorm #wx #weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has
moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on
surface and radar data.

The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus
HCCA.

The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the
Texas Coast and Louisiana.

2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast
through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

613h ago

National Hurricane Center

@nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link

Jun 16 10AM CDT: Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One. For the latest information visit t.co/tW4KeGdBFb 🔗 hurricanes.gov

713h ago

Steve Bowen

@stevebowen.bsky.social

The NHC continues to monitor "Potential Tropical Cyclone One" as it meanders towards the western Gulf. A likely rainmaker, but not extreme. Good reminder, however, that a weak "wind" storm can still drive flooding concerns. Also, NFIP (flood insurance) take-up remains quite low beyond the coast.

69h ago

Texas Storm Chasers

@texasstormchasers.com

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is now being tracked near the Texas coast. The main concern for Texas is not wind. It’s heavy rain and flash flooding, especially along the middle and upper Texas coast into Today through Thursday. Full Texas breakdown: texasstormchasers.com/weather/pote...

613h ago

National Hurricane Center Bot

@nhcbot.bsky.social

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (formerly AL90) located over southern Texas, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC). https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2066886484511080757

214h ago

Margaret Orr (Unofficial)

@margaretorr-mirror.bsky.social

Potential tropical cyclone 1 is 360 miles SW of Lake Charles. Max winds 30 mph. Moving NE 6 mph. Tropical storm watch from TX to Morgan City. Our concern: heavy rain esp Wed aft-Thu morning. Some areas may receive one foot of rain. #nola #lawx

114h ago

Houston Chronicle

@houstonchronicle.com

Tropical storm watches are in place along the upper Texas Gulf Coast as Potential Tropical Cyclone One could soon become the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: Arthur. bit.ly/4xy6Xw8

28h ago

IEMBOT NHC

@nhc.weather.im

Potential Tropical Cyclone #One ADVISORY 1 issued. Very heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding expected from potential tropical cycl#One #One.. Link

114h ago

Alerts from NWS New Orleans LA (UNOFFICIAL)

@msy.nws-bot.us

National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 1A for POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE INTERMEDIATE at Tue, 16 Jun 2026 17:58:17 +0000 via IEMbot Additional Details Here.

10h ago

NWS Alerts(UNOFFICIAL)

@globalweatherpro.com

Flash Flood Warning issued June 16 at 10:45AM CDT until June 16 at 12:00PM CDT by NWS Lake Charles LA At 1045 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts o... #Flood #WX

13h ago

Irene Sans

@irenesans.bsky.social

Regardless of whether this system officially gets named or remains PTC One, residents along the Gulf Coast should remain prepared. Flooding could become life-threatening very quickly. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/heav... @weatherprof.bsky.social @bhensonweather.bsky.social

213h ago

2 sources

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu4 shares hurricanes.gov2 shares

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One prompts flood watches in Texas, Louisiana

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