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Texas Senate race tight as early voting begins, Talarico vs Paxton

politicsOct 18, 2026251,020

On the eve of early voting in Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holds a slim lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with the RealClearPolitics poll average from September 24 to October 14 showing Talarico ahead by 2.2 percentage points. Ad Impact Politics reports spending on the Texas Senate contest, including primaries and future bookings, has topped $500 million so far, with Republicans accounting for more than $368 million and Democrats about $132 million. Talarico reported raising $64 million in the third quarter, which his campaign says is the largest third-quarter haul ever for a Senate candidate; Paxton raised $18 million in Q3, roughly double his Q2 take. Talarico made a closing push that included a CNN town hall where he emphasized bipartisan unity, saying voters are all on the same team. Republicans have matched with high-profile surrogates on the trail: Senator Ted Cruz has campaigned for Paxton, Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned in Tyler, and former President Trump posted criticism of Senator John Cornyn and Karl Rove while urging support for Paxton. Parker Hevron, a political science professor at Texas Woman's University, highlighted the role of outside spending and noted that Elon Musk has poured money into groups running ads targeting Talarico. With more than two weeks remaining until Election Day, campaigns and outside committees are expected to increase spending as early voting begins.

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