Skip to content

Report: Super El Niño could cause 450,000 extra deaths in six months

scienceSep 23, 2026612,011

A Climate Impact Lab report projects roughly 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from the current super El Niño between September 2026 and February 2027. The estimate is in addition to early deaths already driven by the climate crisis and covers hotspots from Indonesia and India to Nigeria, Sudan and Brazil, with the United States ranked among the 20 most affected countries and about 3,500 extra heat deaths projected there. Researchers including Prof Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago and Dr Tamma Carleton at UC Berkeley built the estimate by combining month-by-month temperature, mortality relationships across 24,378 regions with El Niño temperature forecasts, using 1996, 2025 as the baseline. The El Niño has already exceeded the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon months before its expected peak, a magnitude scientists described as

Mark Chadbourn
@chadbourn.bsky.social

Nearly half a million deaths in the next six months expected from a climate crisis-powered super-El Niño, according to the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.

27317d ago
Charlie Angus
@charlieangus104.bsky.social

We have pushed way past the planetary red lines for a liveable future. Meanwhile governments and the oil giants continue to drive fossil fuel expansion. This is on us and we need to act now. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

29317d ago
1 source