U.S. strikes three Iranian oil tankers after Iran targets US warships; IRGC says it fired at a carrier
newsSep 5, 202688186
Shipwreck
@shipwreck75.bsky.social
US intelligence assesses that Iran is considering expanding its attacks in the near future, including strikes on American and Israeli targets, i24NEWS reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
692h ago
According to the report, Tehran is still weighing whether to strike Israel because Iranian decision-makers expect any Israeli response to be unrestrained.
I seem to recall reading this yesterday as also being sourced by NYT, but I don't have that in front of me, so don't quote me :)
So the sweet spot is to ramp things up after the Israeli election but before the US midterms. Halloween 2026: be there, will be wild!
Seems like a fairly safe bet.