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UN warns global heating will hit at least 1.8°C

scienceSep 2, 2026261,448

A UN Environment Programme report says global heating will reach at least 1.8C above preindustrial levels even under the most optimistic scenarios, making overshoot of the Paris 1.5C target unavoidable. The report warns every fraction of additional warming intensifies extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss, and coastal submersion, and says heating up to 3C could cause glaciers to lose more than a quarter of their mass by 2100 and raise sea levels by up to 13cm. Global food production could fall by as much as 14% by 2050 without effective adaptation. Authors call for an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway combining immediate, sustained greenhouse gas cuts with large-scale carbon dioxide removal, saying net zero is an essential milestone and cannot be skipped. The report states the world could be returned to 1.5C this century only if warming stays below about 1.8C and warns nature’s capacity to store carbon is uncertain and will shrink as the planet warms. Palau president Surangel Whipps Jr said the findings are a “fork in the road moment” and urged urgent political will and investment, while UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said extreme heatwaves already show impacts will strike faster, hit harder and last longer.

Prof Bill McGuire
@profbillmcguire.bsky.social

Hugely wishful thinking If emissions peak by 2040 and fall rapidly, research shows we might get away with 'just' a reprise of the Pliocene ~ 3C higher temperatures and sea level eventually 15 - 25m higher If they don't, it will be worse - much worse www.theguardian.com/environment/...

19445d ago
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