An analysis by Luke Hatton at Imperial College London finds carbon pollution from the proposed Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea fields would inflict between £119 billion and £336 billion of economic damage in coming decades, far exceeding Adura’s estimated £28.7 billion value to the UK. The study applies peer reviewed research on temperature-driven economic harm to Adura’s production estimates and notes its damage figures likely understate losses because they exclude amplified extreme weather, sea level rise and climate deaths. Hatton said the numbers show “a very strong destruction of value” beyond what the fields could generate and urged doubling down on clean energy technologies. Independent experts quoted include Richard Sulley of the University of Sheffield, who cited an estimated £4.4 billion hit to the UK economy from this summer’s heatwaves, and Prof Ian Bateman of the University of Exeter, who said cumulative global climate damage is beginning to exceed oil’s face value. Adura, jointly owned by Shell and Equinor, did not respond to requests for comment, while the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero reiterated that the North Sea supports jobs, growth and energy security. The analysis has been submitted to the Rosebank consultation and to an academic journal, intensifying the economic as well as political stakes for ministers weighing approval.
