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Met Office warns strongest El Niño in a century will bring storms to UK

newsAug 21, 202645173

The Met Office says an El Niño developing over the Pacific is likely to be the strongest for more than a century, with Pacific sea temperatures set to rise about 3C, making this event "the largest since the 19th century," according to Prof Adam Scaife. The Met Office forecasts increased rainfall and storminess for north-west Europe including the UK, with wave-like disturbances from the tropics expected to bring wetter, stormier conditions around November. The event will also drive severe droughts across the tropics, including parts of South America and the west Pacific, and heighten drought risk in southern Africa and north-east Australia. Dr Nick Dunstone said more heat will be released from the ocean to the atmosphere during large El Niño events, so 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and temporarily exceed 1.5C above the preindustrial period. The UK is already experiencing drought stress: July was the driest in 190 years, 71.3% of England and all of Wales are in drought, and reservoir levels have fallen to 62.6% capacity. Parts of northwest England saw 52.5mm of rain in 24 hours at Morecambe, but forecasters and officials warned it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs and groundwaters are fully replenished.

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