A World Weather Attribution analysis found that global heating made the hot, dry and windy weather that fuels wildfires at least 20 times more likely in Spain and at least twice as likely in France. The study compared seven-day periods of the highest daily severity ratings, a metric for how severe a wildfire will be if ignited, using weather records and statistical methods to estimate likelihoods in today’s world versus before mass fossil-fuel burning raised global temperature by 1.4C. Scientists said a wet winter and spring boosted vegetation growth that then dried out this summer, creating so-called whiplash conditions that increased fuel for fires. Severe wildfires since early July have killed people, destroyed thousands of homes, and forced more than 300,000 people to flee, while smoke elevated particulate pollution peaks up to 20 times above fair air quality and worsened air quality up to 400 km from the fires. Dr Clair Barnes of Imperial College London called the findings “extremely scary,” and Julie Arrighi of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said the events go well beyond what would be expected from past events. The analysis follows earlier WWA work linking an intense June heatwave, estimated to have caused 20,000 deaths, to human-caused warming. With another heatwave looming, the authors and UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned these climate-driven conditions can turn wildfires into national disasters.
