Analysis warns UK drug deal could cause 229,000 excess deaths

scienceJul 4, 202619122

An analysis published in the British Medical Journal finds the UK-US drug‑pricing agreement reached in December could force the NHS in England to divert £44.7 billion from health services by 2036 to pay higher prices for new medicines, producing an estimated 229,000 excess deaths by 2036. The report, from researchers at the University of York, the University of Liverpool and Christchurch Hospital in New Zealand, says most preventable deaths would be among people with heart, respiratory, gastrointestinal disease or cancer. Including indirect effects on adult social care raises the projected toll to 291,000. The deal commits the UK to pay about 25% more for new medicines over the next decade and to double the share of GDP spent on innovative therapies from 0.3% to 0.6%, against a current annual spend of £14.4 billion. Ministers have defended the agreement as protecting British drug exports from US tariffs and expanding patient access, while campaign groups and opposition MPs say the deal will force NHS service cuts to meet costs. The government says the deal will cost an extra £1 billion between 2025-26 and 2028-29 but has not released long-term cost estimates; science minister Patrick Vallance said the Department of Health and Social Care, not the Treasury, will bear the costs. Unless extra funding is provided, the analysis concludes higher drug spending will reduce NHS services and produce the projected excess deaths.

Gillian Martin

@gillmartin.bsky.social

Jeremy Corbyn was branded a conspiracy theorist for warning a US trade deal would push up NHS drug costs and put patients at risk. The latest BMJ's study claims the deal Starmer signed will divert £45bn from the NHS and cause 229,000 excess deaths by 2036. Corbyn was right, again.

45Yesterday

CarolineJMolloy

@carolinejmolloy.bsky.social

US Big Pharma always hated the NHS's ability to hold drug prices down (due to its huge purchasing power) Streeting, Starmer & Mandelson caved in to Trump's pressure & signed a deal to make the NHS pay way more New analysis suggests it could lead to 229k deaths. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

314h ago

Quoting this

Eternal Cat War15

fun insider info you learn when you get drunk with pharma execs: in countries with nationalized healthcare large pharma only pretends to hate it, they still make plenty of money on volume and it’s still absolutely profitable

Gregg2

The more I read about Starmer the more my opinion of the modern Labour Party falls.

Just Treatment

@justtreatment.org

Analysis out today reveals the Trump-led US-UK drug pricing deal could lead to the preventable deaths of 229,000 NHS patients. We're heading to Parliament on 13th July to make sure every MP understands what's at stake. Invite your MP now - takes 2 mins⬇️ actionnetwork.org/letters/urge...

12Yesterday

Hampton Gaddy

@hggaddy.bsky.social

I can't make heads or tails of this analysis (in the Guardian today). The methods section is one paragraph. Putting aside assumptions about health econ and NHS decision making, it doesn't seem to consider population growth, ageing, or mortality displacement... (1/7) www.bmj.com/content/394/...

"The population costs of this deal will be the excess deaths that can be avoided if the resources required are not devoted to paying more for new medicines. These are called the “health opportunity costs” (fig 2). They are estimated by combining the published causal estimates with projected NHS expenditure and local mortality data from 2024-25. [ref 16]"

92d ago

Lloyd Russell-Moyle

@russell-moyle.co.uk

The latest UK-US trade deal will cost the NHS billions in extra money. It won’t provide access to the NHS for any drugs it couldn’t have already bought and will lead to up to 230,000 excess deaths in the UK. This is the legacy of the Starmer Streeting Project. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

52d ago

Gàidheal Gèidh

@grumps2772.bsky.social

Starmer has betrayed us UK-US drug deal could result in 220,000 avoidable deaths in England, analysis finds www.thenational.scot/news/2624716...

3Yesterday

Bunkunin

@bunkunin.bsky.social

US-UK Medicine Deal Will Take ‘Wrecking Ball’ to #NHS, Causing 229,000 Excess Deaths: Study www.commondreams.org/news/uk-and-... @bellacaledonia.bsky.social

22d ago

Slurms MacKenzie

@slurmsmackenzie.bsky.social

Donald Trump's medication trade deal for the UK is going to kill 229,000 people in England alone

54h ago

the-news24.com

@the-news24com.bsky.social

An analysis warns a UK-US pharmaceutical trade deal could lead to nearly 230,000 excess deaths in England by diverting funds from the NHS. The deal, agreed to avoid US tariffs, increases UK spending on new medicines to 0.6% of GDP. #UKUSDeal #NHS www.the-news24.com/2026/07/uk-u...

32d ago

Jorvex

@jorvex609.bsky.social

A secret UK-US pharma deal could kill nearly 300,000 people by 2036. The BMJ confirms: 229,000 excess deaths in England alone. Working-class patients will die so American pharma can protect its profit margins. The government kept it secret. Full breakdown here: https://youtu.be/9koys_ft8Jk

2Yesterday

Nick Hopkinson

@copddoc.bsky.social

"on pharmaceutical drug pricing...when it comes to the UK, the cost of US trade aggression over a 10 year period is a potential £45bn in drug spending and nearly 300 000 excess deaths." www.bmj.com/content/394/... @bmj.com

122h ago

Martin McDonald

@martymcd.bsky.social

I genuinely think they've lost their collective mind over there, did you see the early headline on '171k* early deaths as a result of Starmer's drug deal with Trump' which as well as being questionable, overly specific misquote of the report number also belongs in the Mail?

2Yesterday

Jenny Rathbone

@jennyrathbone.bsky.social

US-UK drug deal could result in 229,000 excess deaths in England. Lots of Qs for MPs whose role is to scrutinise Government How do Starmer and Streeting justify sacrificing £45bn NHS ££ for a tenuous trade deal with Trump?

1Yesterday

John Dalton - brain marinated in woke sauce. They/them

@johndaledalton.bsky.social

NHS drug pricing deal with Donald Trump will 'cause more deaths than Covid' www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/... #wato

12d ago

mcewanmorton.bsky.social

@mcewanmorton.bsky.social

229,000 excess deaths: the cost of US-UK trade deal? www.theguardian.com/society/vide...

Yesterday

3 sources

theguardian.comUS-UK drug deal could result in 229,000 excess deaths in England, analysis suggests bbc.co.ukEurope heatwave: France records 2,025 excess deaths as Europe braces for more extreme weather mediafaro.orgFrance records 2025 excess deaths from heatwave, but data remains incomplete.

France records 2,025 excess deaths during record June heatwavescience Analysis warns UK drug deal could cause 229,000 excess deathsscience

Analysis warns UK drug deal could cause 229,000 excess deaths

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